Mike's Fearless Oscar Picks

 

As always these are who I think are going to win on Sunday night, not who I think should win.  If I have a Spoiler listed, it's a someone/film that I think has a chance to win.

Winners in blue!  I got 21 out of 24.

Best Picture:  One Battle After Another               Spoiler: Sinners

Best Director:     Paul Thomas Anderson (One  Battle After Another)                             

Best Actress:   Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Best Actor:  Michael B. Jordan (Sinners                                      Spoiler:   Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme)

Best Supporting Actress:  Amy Madigan (Weapons)                 Spoiler:  Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

Best Supporting Actor:  Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)

                                                                                             Spoiler: Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value)

Best Adapted Screenplay:  One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay:   Sinners   

Best Casting:  One Battle After Another                                    Spoiler:    Sinners                    

Best Cinematography:  One Battle After Another                Spoiler: Sinners

Best Costume Design:  Frankenstein

Best Film Editing:   One Battle After Another                                           Spoiler:  Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:   Frankenstein

Best Production Design:   Frankenstein                                     Spoiler:   Sinners

Best Score:  Sinners

Best Song:   Golden (KPop Demon Hunters)                                    

Best Sound:   F1                                            Spoiler: Sinners

Best Visual Effects:  Avatar: Fire and Ash                             Spoiler: F1

Best Animated Feature:   KPop Demon Hunters

Best Documentary Feature:  The Perfect Neighbor                Spoiler:  Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Best International Film:   Sentimental Value                      Spoiler:   The Secret Agent

Best Animated Short:    Butterfly                      Spoiler: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Best Documentary Short:  All the Empty Rooms                Spoiler: Armed Only with a Camera

Best Live Action Short:  Two People Exchanging Saliva                  Spoiler:  A Friend of Dorothy 

Mike’s Fearless Oscar Picks for 2025

As always these are who I think are going to win on Sunday night, not who I think should win.  If I have a Spoiler listed, it's a film that I think has a chance to win

Winners in Green.

Best Picture:  Anora                                              Spolier:  Conclave

Best Director:  Sean Baker - Anora                                  Spoiler:  Brady Corbet - The Brutalist

Best Actress:   Demi Moore - The Substance

Best Actor:  Adrien Brody - The Brutalist                Spoiler:  Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown

Best Supporting Actress:  Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez

Best Supporting Actor:  Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

Best Adapted Screenplay:  Conclave

Best Original Screenplay:  Anora                                   Spoiler:  A Real Pain

Best Cinematography:   The Brutalist

Best Costume Design:  Wicked

Best Film Editing:  Conclave                                               Spoiler: Anora

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:  The Substance            Spoiler:  Wicked

Best Production Design:  Wicked                                   Spoiler:  The Brutalist

Best Score:  The Brutalist

Best Song:  El Mal - Emilia Perez                                       Spoiler:  The Journey - The Six Triple Eight

Best Sound:  Dune: Part Two                                             Spoiler:  Wicked

Best Visual Effects:  Dune: Part Two

Best Animated Feature:  The Wild Robot                     Spoiler: Flow

Best Documentary Feature:  Porcelain War                 Spoiler: No Other Land  

Best International Film:  Emilia Perez                           Spoiler:   I’m Still Here 

Best Animated Short:  Yuck!                                            Spoiler:  Wander to Wonder

Best Documentary Short:  I Am Ready, Warden     Spoiler:  The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Best Live Action Short:  The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent         Spoiler:  A Lien

Mike's Fearless Oscar Picks 2024

 

As always these are who I think are going to win on Sunday night, not who I think should win.  If I have a Spoiler listed, it's a film that I think has a chance to win. 

Winners in Green.

Best Picture:  Oppenheimer

Best Director: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Best Actress: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon     Spoiler: Emma Stone - Poor Things

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer     Spoiler: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

Adapted Screenplay: Cord Jefferson - American Fiction     Spoiler: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Original Screenplay: Justine Triet and Arthur Harari - Anatomy of a Fall      Spoiler: David Hemingson - The Holdovers

Animated Feature Film: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse      Spoiler: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary Feature Film: 20 Days in Mariupol

International Feature Film: The Zone of Interest

Original Score: Ludwig Göransson - Oppenheimer       Spoiler: Robbie Robertson - Killers of the Flower Moon

Original Song: Billie Eilish and Finneas: What Was I Made For? - Barbie      Spoiler: Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt: I’m Just Ken - Barbie

Sound: Oppenheimer       Spoiler: The Zone of Interest

Makeup and Hairstyling: Maestro       Spoiler: Poor Things

Costume Design: Jacqueline Durra - Barbie      Spoiler: Holly Waddington - Poor Things

Cinematography: Hoyte van Hoytema - Oppenheimer       Spoiler: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design: Poor Things       Spoiler: Barbie

Film Editing: Jennifer Lane - Oppenheimer      Spoiler: Anatomy of a Fall

Visual Effects:  Godzilla Minus One   Spoiler:  The Creator

Short Subject Documentary: The Last Repair Shop        Spoiler: The ABCs of Book Banning

Short Subject Live Action:  The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar       Spoiler: Red, White and Blue

Short Subject Animation: WAR IS OVER!         Spoiler: Letter to a Pig

Drive-Away Dolls

My View: Drive-Away Dolls (2024) R   Jamie (Margaret Qualley) regrets her breakup with her girlfriend and needs to get away to forget her troubles. Her best friend Marian (Geraldine Viswanathan) just wants to get away. The two embark on a road trip to Tallahassee in search of a fresh start. They rent a car intended for a group of inept criminals, and now the chase is on, but the girls don’t know that. I am a huge fan of the Coen brothers movies, especially Fargo. So I was excited when I saw the trailer for this film. Boy, was I disappointed. I wanted this film to end almost as soon as it started. It feels as if it is half a film (maybe brother Joel has the rest of the plot) with storylines that seem to end without any result, characters talking on and on without any rhyme or reason, and an ending that felt too easy. The film is full of stunt casting, so be warned that some actors are on screen for just a few moments. There isn’t a lot of heart in this film, and it feels almost like a parody of the sex romp films of the 80s with a lesbian slant, but that would be giving it too much credit.   My Rating: Cable  Drive-Away Dolls Website  Now playing in theaters.

My View: Ordinary Angels (2024) PG   Sharon (Hilary Swank) is a hairdresser known for getting involved in people’s lives. She finds out about a critically ill young girl whose widowed father, Ed (Alan Ritchson), is in over his head trying to get her treatment. Sharon does what she does best and single-handedly rallies an entire community to help pay for an operation. It will take a miracle, but that’s what Sharon does. Ordinary Angels is a touching story with a bit of Christian overtones that gets a little schmaltzy at times but works because of the message that if we work together and show some human kindness, miracles can happen. Swank has fun as the heart-of-gold hairdresser who has a troubled past and wants to right a few wrongs, primarily through her ability to talk anybody into anything. There are plenty of tears along the way, but it’s a story that loves a good miracle or two.   My Rating: Bargain Matinee  Ordinary Angels Website  Now playing in theatres.

Indiefest: lo Capitano (2023) lo Capitano is about two teenage boys, Seydou (Seydou Sarr) and Moussa (Moustapha Fall), who leave Dakar in Senegal to go on an epic journey to the greener pastures of Europe. Little do the young men know the hardships and dangers they will encounter along the way. This powerful film takes you on an unbelievable journey of two boys who are forced to become men along the way. lo Capitano is a film that treats its characters with tenderness as they endure horrific times. You are given insight into why the two boys want to go to Europe, but you also see why, once they have left, they miss their families and home. Seydou Sarr gives an incredible performance as a young man who is good at heart, loves his best friend, and is horrified at what he has to deal with and endure. It’s a brilliant performance that hits you in the gut and keeps punching because that's how bad this journey of two teen boys trying to find a better life. lo Capitano is a film about dreams and the journeys we travel to make them come true, no matter the hardship.  My Rating: I Would Pay to See it Again  lo Capitano Website Now playing in theaters. 

Indiefest: Stopmotion (2023) R  Stopmotion is the story of Ella (Aisling Franciosi), a stop-motion animator working under the demanding, legendary animator Suzanne (Stella Gonet), who happens to be her mother. When her mother dies, Ella hopes to finally make the films she has always dreamed of. Unfortunately, those dreams may become nightmares when a character she is filming suddenly comes to life. I am a huge fan of stop-motion animation, and this film is packed with incredibly creepy and scary animation. Ella is a frustrated animator who has lived under the shadow and thumb of her mother. When Ella finally starts working on her own creation, it’s actually a story from a neighborhood kid that takes a life of its own. Stopmotion is a story of a woman who doesn’t know what is real and what is made up. The storyline is a little light, but the melding of stop-motion animation with live-action makes this horror film stand out and gives you plenty of scares.   My Rating: Bargain Matinee  Stopmotion website Now playing in theaters. 

Forgotten Film: Heartaches (1981) R   A young wife (Annie Potts) is pregnant, and she doesn’t want to tell her husband (Robert Carradine) because of one little problem: it’s not his. So she leaves home to get an abortion and meets up with Rita (Margot Kidder). Though the two are opposites, they decide to pair up and soon find they have much more in common than they realize. While not a great movie, the performances of Margot Kidder and especially Annie Potts make this film worth watching. While Kidder’s character is the more outrageous, Potts dominates the film as a woman who has finally realized that she is far more capable than her worthless husband ever lets her be.   My Rating: Bargain Matinee  Heartaches Info

Weird Credits:  From the credits of Drive-Away Dolls: Chief of Zoss

Coming Soon to a Screen Near You: Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (2024) The Spengler family has returned to where it all began, the iconic New York City firehouse, to team up with some of the original Ghostbusters. Their mission is to stop an evil force unleashed by an ancient artifact that threatens to turn the world into a second Ice Age. This is the first movie in the Ghostbusters franchise that the late Ivan Reitman won’t be involved in. The film was going to be a Christmas release but was delayed by the actor and writer’s strikes.  Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire Website   The film is out on Friday, March 22nd. 

Until Next Time!

Mike's Fearless 2023 Oscar Picks

These are who I think will win the Academy Awards, not who I think should win.

Best Picture:  Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Director:  Daniel Kwan & Daniel Schreinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis   Could Win:    Brendan Fraser - The Whale

Best Actress: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once  Could Win: Cate Blanchett - Tar

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Supporting Actress:  Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once   Could Win: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Best Original Screenplay:  Daniel Kwan & Daniel Schreinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once  Could Win:  Martin McDonagh -  The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sarah Polley - Women Talking

  Could Win: Edward Berger, Ian Stokell & Lesley Paterson - All Quiet on the Western Front

Best International Pictures:  All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Best Animated Feature:  Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Best Documentary: Navalny  Could Win:  Fire of Love

Best Original Score:  Volker Bertelmann - All Quiet on the Western Front   Could Win:  Justin Hurwitz - Babylon

Best Original Song: M.M. Keeravaani & Chandrabose, “Naatu Naatu” - RRR   Could Win:   Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna & Tems, “Lift Me Up” - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 

Best Cinematography:  James Friend - All Quiet on the Western Front   Could Win:    Mandy Walker - Elvis

Best Editing:  Paul Rogers - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Costume Design: Catherine Martin -  Elvis  Could Win:  Shirley Kurata - Everything Everywhere All at Once

Best Production Design:  Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy & Bev Dunn - Elvis   Could Win: Florencia Martin & Anthony Carlino - Babylon 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:  Elvis   Could Win:  The Whale

Best Visual Effects:  Avatar: The Way of Water  Could Win:  Top Gun: Maverick

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick  Could Win:  Elvis 

Best LIve-Action Short:  Le Pupille  Could Win:  The Red Suitcase

Best Animated Short:  The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse    Could Win:  My Year of Dicks

Best Documentary Short:  Stranger at the Gate   Could Win: The Elephant Whisperers

Scream VI

My View:  Scream VI (2023)  R  It’s been a year since Ghostface killed again in Woodsboro, and some of the survivors have moved to New York City to start a new chapter in their lives. Unfortunately, Ghostface is going to be a part of that too. The Scream films have always been fun because, from the start, they have played with tropes of horror films. The mantle of the steely victim who fights back has been passed from Sidney (Neve Campbell) to Sam (Melissa Barrera). After starring in the first five films, Neve Campbell decided she wanted out after they offered her a salary that she (and frankly, I) felt wasn’t in line with what she was worth to the franchise. Sam is now the target of Ghostface, and Barrera is perfect in the role of the long-lost sister, marked by the internet as a potential killer. Jenna Ortega continues to have fun in the horror genre as Sam’s younger sister, who wants to live her life without Sam constantly keeping a close watch on her. The film is fun, with lots of deaths in the typical fashion of Ghostface calling people on the phone before killing them. There is some controversy early in the film, as Ghostface uses a gun instead of a knife (something Ghostface has never done before), and I wish the filmmakers had addressed it in the movie. Also, I enjoyed the return of Kirby (Hayden Panettiere), a fan favorite from Scream 4. As with all the Scream movies, there are a bunch of clues who Ghostface is this time, and this film revisits all the previous Scream films, making it fun to go down that nightmare lane of past killers. And in the usual Scream fashion, you must ignore that our heroes can miraculously heal to keep fighting or even walk off in the sunset. But don’t fear; Ghostface is sure to return. And there is a small post credit scene after the main credits.    My Rating: Bargain Matinee  Scream VI Website  Now playing in theatres nationwide.

My View: Champions (2023) PG-13  The court orders a former minor-league basketball coach, Marcus (Woody Harrelson), to manage a team of players with intellectual disabilities. Marcus will soon learn that his players have more to teach him than he will ever teach them. This is one of those films that when you see it, you go, ‘well, that was ok but enjoyable.’ Not a great film in any sense, but because of the supporting cast of the players on the team, it will bring a smile or two to your face. It’s not a very funny film, and because of who directed it (Robert Farrelly of the Farrelly brothers fame), there are a couple of times the humor goes a little too far (fart jokes and projectile vomiting for laughs). However, still, I had a good time watching Harrelson interact with the players. There is the typical plot device of Marcus being forced to coach while knowing that he won’t be here for too long, but little does he know he will fall in love with the players on the team and with one of the player’s sisters (Kaitlin Olson). I loved the final scene at the last basketball game and felt it made Champions conclude on a high note. Be sure to stay during the credits for a fun musical number.  My Rating: Bargain Matinee  Champions Website   Now playing in theatres nationwide.

My View: 65 (2023) PG-13 An astronaut, Mills (Adam Driver), is piloting a ship when it crashes on a mysterious planet. Along with the only other survivor of the crash, a young girl named Koa (Ariana Greenblatt), Mills must survive in a hostile world full of giant creatures. You know a movie is in trouble when it feels that it has to explain everything right up front with a lower third. Thanks, I think we figured out that he crashed on Earth back in prehistoric times, before man. And oh, by the way, that meteor that damaged your spaceship might be the cause of the death of the dinosaurs. We get it. The special effects seem almost out of a Godzilla movie, and a plot that is pretty easy to figure out makes for a film that, no matter how hard Adam Driver tries, never gives any thrills or scares. And by the way, one of the worst endings I’ve seen in a long time (I actually laughed out loud at one point).   My Rating: Cable   65 Website  Now playing in theatres nationwide.

Indiefest: The Quiet Girl (2022) PG-13  Cáit (Catherine Clinch) is a young girl who doesn’t seem to fit in anywhere, including in her wildly dysfunctional family. She is sent away to live with foster parents for the summer, and there she discovers a world that will open up for her. It’s a home where affection slowly grows, and there are meant to be no secrets, but Cáit will discover one. Nominated for an Academy Award and to be sure on my top films of the year list, The Quiet Girl is a wonderful and magical film about a young girl who would rather spend time alone in a field than with her family or fellow students. Picked on by both those students and her own family as being strange, she finds a place with her foster family that accepts her the way she is and lets her slowly discover that the world isn’t as scary or mean as she thought it was. Catherine Clinch is brilliant as Cáit, the young girl that walks to the beat of a different drummer. I loved the foster family of the middle-aged relatives (Carrie Crowley and Andrew Bennett) that let Cáit alone to discover that kindness and love do exist. The Quiet Girl is a beautiful and sometimes heart-breaking film about what can happen when a child feels accepted and loved.   My Rating: I Would Pay to See it Again   The Quiet Girl Website  Now playing in select theatres.

My View: Chang Can Dunk (2023)  PG  A young Asian-American teen named Chang (Bloom Li) loves basketball but isn’t good enough to make the team. When a school bully makes fun of Chang, and it goes viral, Chang bets the bully that by the end of the football season, he will dunk a basketball. Chang just wants to dunk a ball but ends up learning how to believe in himself. Chang Can Dunk is an enjoyable teen film for the whole family about getting what you want and learning from your mistakes. Bloom Li is fun as the teen who wants to change his image now that he is no longer a freshman in high school, but he soon learns bullies don’t care. When a new girl (Zoe Renee) joins the band and Chang thinks he has lost his chance with her, he challenges the bully (the basketball team’s star player) with a bet that Chang, at 5’8, can dunk a basketball in 10 weeks. What I liked about this film is the event of dunking the basketball is only half the movie, and the consequences of the event make up the second half of the film. Chang Can Dunk is just a fun film with some cool messages along the way for teens and younger kids to learn.  My Rating: Bargain Matinee  Chang Can Dunk Website Now playing on the Disney+ platform. 

Forgotten Film: The Anniversary Party (2001) R  Ever wondered what attending one of those exclusive parties at a star’s home is like? Well, that’s what The Anniversary Party is. The party is held by Joe and Sally (Alan Cumming and Jennifer Jason Leigh) to celebrate their on-again, off-again, on-again relationship. He is a director, and she is an actress, and boy, do they have problems. She has left him many times because he sleeps around. However, this time it was because he didn’t cast her in a movie based on her life because he felt she was too old for the part. The film was written and directed by Cumming and Leigh and shot with an early version of a digital camera, giving us an almost fly-on-the-wall look at a Hollywood party. Many of the cast are playing versions of themselves, including Kevin Kline as a former leading man who is no longer getting those roles, Phoebe Cates as his wife who has quit the business to raise their family, Parker Posey as an up-and-coming actress, and Gwyneth Paltrow as an actress who has grown up in the industry. So, pour out a drink and join the party. It’s going to get a little weird.   My Rating: Bargain Matinee  The Anniversary Party Info The film is available to rent on Amazon and iTunes.

Weird Credits: From the credits of Scream VI: Body Track Artist

Coming Soon to a Screen Near You: Beau is Afraid (2023) R  I am just going to quote IMBD to describe this movie ‘Following the sudden death of his mother, a mild-mannered but anxiety-ridden man confronts his darkest fears as he embarks on an epic, Kafkaesque odyssey back home.’ This film stars Joaquin Phoenix and is written and directed by Ari Aster, who brought us Hereditary (2018) and Midsommar (2019). That is all you need to know, but watch the mind-blowing trailer to confirm that this will be one trippy movie. Beau is Afraid Website  Coming to theatres in late April. 

Until Next Time!

 

Mike's Fearless Oscar Picks

As with past years I am picking who I think will win, not who I want to win.  I will also give you a possible winner if I feel that the category isn’t a lock.  Actual winners highlighted in green.

Best Picture:  Nomadland

Best Achievement in Directing:  Chloé Zhao - Nomadland

Best Actor:  Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom   Could win:  Anthony Hopkins - The Father

Best Actress:  Viola Davis - Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom    Could win:  Frances McDormand - Nomadland

Best Supporting Actor:  Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah    Could win:  Sacha Baron Cohen - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Supporting Actress:  Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari   Could win:  Olivia Coleman - The Father

Best Original Screenplay:  Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell    Could win:  Aaron Sorkin - The Trial of the Chicago 7

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

  Could win:  Nomadland - Chloé Zhao 

Best Animated Feature:  Soul    Could win:  Wolfwalkers

Best Production Design:   Mank - Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

Best Cinematography:  Nomadland - Joshua James Richards   Could win:  Mank - Erik Messerschmidt

Best Costume Design:  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom - Ann Roth   Could Win: Mank - Trish Summerville

Best Film Editing:   Sound of Metal - Mikkell E. G. Nielsen

Best Makeup and Hair:  Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom – Mia Neal, Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Jamika Wilson

Best Sound:  Sound of Metal – Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés, Phillip Bladh    Could win:  Soul – Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker

Best Visual Effects:  Tenet – Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Santiago Colomo Martinez

Best Original Score:  Soul – Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

Best Original Song:  Speak Now from One Night in Miami – Leslie Odom Jr., Sam Ashworth  Could win:  Húsavík from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson  (Fight For You - Judas and the Black Messiah)

Best Documentary Feature:  My Octopus Teacher  Could win:  Collective

Best International Feature:  Another Round    Could win:  Quo Vadis, Aida 

Best Live Action Short:  Two Distant Strangers   Could win:  Feeling Through

Best Animated Short:  If Anything Happens I Love You   Could win:  Opera

Best Documentary Short:  A Concerto Is a Conversation   Could win: Colette